Background and objective of the procurement

The circular economy discourse is already well-served by global material flow measurements, circularity indicators, policy stocktakes, thematic studies and examples of existing business models. This procurement is not intended to duplicate those products or measure how circular the global economy or policy landscape is. The Outlook will instead leverage a combination of synthesis and foresight capabilities to provide forward-looking, decision-oriented intelligence on how geopolitical, geoeconomic, regulatory, technological, trade and investment shifts – as reflections of a set of core megatrends – are changing the strategic relevance of and are generating the most commercially relevant opportunities in key international circular value chains, informing leading investment sector and business leaders on what the key economic opportunities are and how to position themselves in light of the projected developments – in turn informing policymakers on the most critical bottlenecks.

The Outlook will scan globally for developments tied to a set of core megatrends and a larger set of resulting and parallel sub-trends and pivotal events that influence our relationship with CRMs and which as a result alter the strategic context for key circular economy value chains and the associated commercial opportunities. Its applied analysis will have a global framing and a global focus but also consider the perspective of ODA-eligible partner countries as well as links to the EU and Global Gateway.

The intention is to establish a flagship report series, with subsequent editions published at each subsequent World Circular Economy Forum (hereafter the ‘WCEF’) using the concept developed under this assignment. The first report shall establish a recognisable publication architecture and repeatable methodology suitable for use in subsequent editions, along with pre-defined sectors and priority themes. The concept shall explain how future editions could retain this stable analytical foundation while refreshing world events, weak signals, value-chain applications, cases and recommendations to remain relevant and topical, ensuring that the report has a sufficient level of novelty and innovation to justify annual publication.

Apart from the ASEAN report commissioned under Section 3.3, production, updating and launch of subsequent editions are outside this procurement; this procurement entails no commitment to commission them or retain the same supplier. The ASEAN report shall share the Outlook brand and analytical architecture and constitute an associated regional output between full editions (conceptually ‘1.5’ between ‘1.0’ and ‘2.0’), rather than a second full global edition. Final publication titles and numbering shall be agreed with Sitra.

The recurring core question is this: starting from a comprehensive analysis of core megatrends today, where and why is circular economy becoming strategically important, and how should businesses and investors pivot to optimally direct their resources?

The first report shall address the following questions, which shall also form part of the reusable concept for subsequent editions:

• What are the most central megatrends (particularly geostrategic trends) and associated trends and events that impact CRM futures and our relationship with these materials?

• Resulting from these trends and events,

o which resources and circular value chains are gaining strategic importance, and how can these markets be expected to develop?

o which business opportunities within these markets related to circular solutions and business models show credible signs of developing maturity and market uptake, investability and scalability (accounting for international trade, including with the EU) when looking ahead, where are the most opportune areas for supporting commercial deployment and which bottlenecks remain unresolved?

o how should investors and the private sector position themselves to take advantage of the markets expected to emerge?

o What opportunities are already connected to and could be further unlocked through the EU Global Gateway?

The assignment requires an integrated combination of circular economy and material-systems expertise (including in relation to CRMs, especially related to secondary CRMs), geopolitical and geoeconomic analysis and foresight capabilities, as well as trade and investment analysis, commercial intelligence, business writing, sector-specific in-depth knowledge and insights on both ODA country contexts and EU policy & Global Europe, data analysis, editorial production and data visualisation.

Assignment

The supplier shall develop the reusable concept, methodology and publication architecture for the Strategic Circular Value Chains Outlook series and research, write, visualise and support publication of the first report, including delivery of its launch package, in close collaboration with Sitra. The procurement commissions the first global Outlook report and an associated short ASEAN report. Final delivery of the first report and launch package is set for 1 April 2027; the ASEAN report shall be delivered publication-ready by 10 June 2027. The assignment ends with delivery of this report and its agreed editable materials and does not include production or launch support for subsequent full editions or attendance at the October 2027 forum. The assignment covers three output packages:

1. Inception and series design

2. First Strategic Circular Value Chains Outlook report

3. ASEAN-focused 2027 Outlook report and roadshow

The procurement is described in more detail in Appendix 1 to the invitation to tender.